Interesting result in the Eastleigh by election.
Lib Dems scrape in, 14% down in share of the vote, and declare a stunning victory. Their loss of share of vote is broadly in line with national polls. If they think this is good news they must have expected to lose every seat. Nick Clegg should have been finished by tuition fees. He must be finished by Rennard. But I expect the Lib dems will let him carry on, zombie like the banks.
Tories are destroyed. That they failed to win the last election, and are going backwards from there. The only questions are about getting rid of Cameron before or after the election, and who will replace him. The worst thing for Cameron is that he loses to UKIP, but the Lib Dems hold the seat. This will reinforce the claims by his back benchers that the Lib Dems are getting too much of their own way in the coalition. Thus dragging the tories even further away from reality.
Labour is in much better shape than this result would indicate. Normally a third party gets squeezed in a tight by election. When another challenger comes in to make it a three horse race it can be disastrous. As it was their share of vote held steady (very marginal increase). A good performance.
UKIP look like the real winners. This really was a solid performance from them. Their program is an interesting mix of vairous populist nationalistic measures. While their voters may harbour ante diluvian attitudes, there is no real reason to accuse the party of racism.
I personally do not support their policy on immigration or on Europe. But they speak more economic sense than the Tories. They are also more willing than Labour to step outside the prevailing political consensus. Do not be surprised to see them do very well at every election between now and the next general election. They could win some other by election.
When Miliband first got into post he was prepared to swim against the tide on Murdoch & on austerity. He needs to double down on that to win a working majority at the next election.
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