Iraqi Anniversary

So..... ten years since the Iraq invasion. Wow, doesn't time fly when you're having fun?!?

To any neutral observer, the Iraq war was lost.

It was lost by the Brits in Basra.

It was lost by the US in general.

It was certainly lost by the Iraqi people.

And Saddam Hussein's Tikriti clan lost power, so they lost too.

The only way not to lose was not to participate. Iran and France did the best out of it. Jaques Chirac will be forever remembered (outside of France at least) for refusing to bow to the pressure to join the charade. It is only a minor injustice, all things considered, but it still rankles with me that a corrupt old hypocrite like Chirac gets to leave with a positive balance sheet because other world leaders proved even more useless.

How can men of conviction (however deranged) like Bush and Blair make the weather vane Chirac look principled in comparison? Answers on a postcard to the ICC at the Hague.

My Grandad told me that there are only two ways to win a war.

1) Eliminate the enemy (almost never tried, if it is tried, always failed since prehistory)
2) Keep on fighting until the other side gives up

Looked at like that, unless we eliminated every single Iraqi, sooner or later the war would be lost. However many victories the Brits scored in India, sooner or later we were always going to leave. The empire would be lost.

In light of this, you need a central, achievable objective which, when achieved, lets you declare victory and pull out. This objective has to be something the other side will aquiesce to when faced with the alternative. Iraq war 1 provides a clear example. pictures of Norman Schwarzkopf telling the Iraqi general where to sign let the world know the US had won. The Iraqis aquiesced to the US objectives/terms.

But in Iraq war II. what would victory have looked like? There was no clear objective, apart from making those dastardly Iraqis 'stop it'. This is confirmed by the shifting justification both before and afterward.

After Vietnam, the US learnt, at least for a generation, to not invade other people's countries. They didn't stop meddling, but they didn't invade.

Iraq war I only half changed that. Kuwait was an ally. Iraq was in breach of international law. It was a wide coalition which went after them. Iraq war II was very different. It was probably illegal, and had to be justified by half truths and lies.

Have we learnt? Well, no. Perhaps because there was no draft, the US polulace has not accepted defeat. Likewise (but not so relevant) the UK.

Everyone thinks it was 'the surge that won it'. The surge provided covering fire for withdrawal. In that sense it was tactical genius. Political rather than military tactics. Problem is, the US Army believed its own publicity. It tried the same trick in Afghanistan. And it has failed. Still they fail to acknowledge that.

Perhaps, in ten years time when the US elite realises it lost both these wars, the lessons will be learnt.

After all, if all the soldiers are back home, the budget will be much healthier and that may allow space for reflection.

As for me, I still have difficulty forgiving the big lie. I can respect people that disagree with me, that thought it was worth attacking Iraq just to remove Saddam. Or that the oil justified it. I may dislike them, but I can respect them, or who believed the WMD fairy story and now fully admit they were wrong. But Tony Blair, the supposed leader of the British left said, on the eve of war, 'Even today, if Saddam gives up his WMDs, he and his sons can stay in power'.

I do not believe Mr Blair was misled. I believe he demanded British secret services present the evidence to support the policy upon which he was already set.

I have real difficulty coming to terms with that. Any rational person must know that fabricating evidence to invade another country is against international law. It is a war crime. I cannot prove Mr Blair is guilty, but surely there is a case to answer?

Let the court decide. Mr Blair should be extradited to the Hague. Then our leaders might learn lessons a little more quickly.