Turkish Conspiracy Delight

I love a conspiracy theory.

I don't necessarily believe them, but I do nevertheless love them.

Perhaps it is a throwback to m youth, because it does have the word 'piracy' in there.

And while I think most of the bad things that happen are more down to 'cock up' than 'conspiracy' (that is more a case of the incompetence of those that are in charge than their malevolent evil) I am also of the opinion that the vast majority of those bad things do get stopped pretty quickly when there are adverse affects on people with power or influence. Whereas when the poor suffer, not too much happens without a long sustained campaign.

In a similar way, mistakes and incompetence which give money to the already rich and powerful continue unabated for years, for decades, for centuries or perhaps forever. When an error results in a poor person getting a bit extra, it rapidly ends in a court of law.

So while these things may not be the result of Machiavellian conspiracy, or piracy, the apathy which allows these things to happen is selective. There must always be individuals who know, and turn a blind eye. So it is with corruption.

But I digress. What I am really thinking about today is my favourite conspiracy theory. That the protests in Turkey are actually CIA sponsored, in the same way people allege the colour revolutions in Ukraine, Georgia and Iran were.

As I said, I don't necessarily believe in conspiracy theories just because I enjoy them. That does; mean you can't lean anything from them. On the contrary when a conspiracy theory gains currency, it tells you something about both those that peddle it, and those it mentions. So this idea tells us something about Erdogan, his supporters, the opposition protesters and the public image of America in Turkey.

In brief the conspiracy theory says that a Sufi leader by the name of Fethullah Gülen (Hocafendi  to his friends and followers) is actually in the pay of the CIA. Check out his history with google. Make your own mind up.

That these guys in the Gulen movement, while sill generally approving of the AKP have switched support from Erdogan to Abdullah Gul (current president) or Bulent Arinc (deputy prime minister) or Ahmet Davutoglu (foreign minister). And that is why Gul & Arinc are being much more conciliatory towards the protesters. This Gulen movement is also mean to have influence with a large number of police officers.

So the CIA have been stirring up the secular educated youth as they did in the colour revolutions. They have also been using influence in the security service to cause police to overreact, stoking the fire further. And they have been giving the nod to rivals in the APK to undermine Erdogan, so that a more Israel friendly leader can be installed.

As everyone knows, all conspiracy theories must involve Israel somewhere.

There may even be a little truth in some small aspect of this theory. But some of the things I think it tells us about the actors are as follows:-

1) The Gulen guys are mistrusted, in the same way a small religious denomination would be my educated secular youth in the West

2) Erdogan has got carried away by his power. I know that people saying something doesn't make it true, but conspiracy theories gain currency because they are believable. Whatever his role in this situation, people are starting to believe Erdogan sees himself as a modern day Sultan. He himself must take a large slice of blame for that.

3) Other significant figures in the APK are seen as more ambitious than they are loyal.

4) People dislike Israel (no biggie)

5) People see America as an interfering, imperialist behemoth. Like with Israel, this is not all bad. While it is better to be respected and loved than respected and feared, the latter will do.

The more that people subscribe to this view, the more vulnerable Erdogan becomes. Any democratic politician must lose power at some time, for his long term legacy, the sooner the better for Erdogan.