Turkey, Democracy?

There have been riots in Turkey.

The young over educated but under employed elite have taken to the streets to challenge the political establishment.

This kind of looks like a hybrid between the colour revolutions in the former Soviet Union and the Arab Spring.

Erdogan, prime minister and leader of the AK Party faces a strong challenge to his authority. The AK Party is described in the West as Islamist. But it rejects this description. It is certainly conservative. And in the same way French conservatives would make a virtue of their Catholicism, or German conservatives call themselves 'Christian Democrats' the AKP is generally religiously conservative. It was founded in 2001, the core of founders splitting from the Islamist virtue party. So an outright and total rejection of any link doesn't seem honest. I generally view the AKP as 'ex Islamist' in the same way as Eastern European parties of the left can be 'ex Communist'.

Erdogan was elected. In a sign of the maturing of Turkish democracy after several years, or even decades, of a secular, socially liberal, politically conservative military based elite holding the reins of power, the election victory of the AKP was recognised. Initially Erdogan was denied the office of prime minister, because of Islamist actions in his past. His wife's wearing of a headscarf was a times legally problematic. But the party has been in power pretty much constantly since 2002.

The democratic weight of the conservative, rural poor delivering victory over the heads of the wealthy, liberal, urban elite. Parallels could be drawn with Thatcher and Reagan.

Turkey, one of those countries in which there genuinely seemed to be a 'deep state'. Where the military saw itself as the ultimate guarantor of the secular state, and democracy, saw ex generals brought to trial and convicted.

These were huge steps forward for Turkey. Whenever people hold power without being held to account, corruption takes hold. As we all know, power corrupts. The holding to account of such titans of the establishment may be called sweet revenge. To me it looked like an example to many more established democracies further west.

Today, the boot is on the other foot. Today, the AKP is the political establishment. Erdogan, once undefeatable at the ballot box and surefooted in foreign policy, is challenged at home and isolated abroad.

The initial Foreign policy was 'zero problems with our neighbours'. Turkey started to look like a real leader of the Islamic world. Ready to stand up to the US and refuse use of NATO airbases for the Iraq war. The early revolutionaries of the Arab spring saw the Turkish model of democracy in a Muslim country as an inspiration.

Turkey also managed to combine NATO membership with friendly relations with Iran. No mean feat.

Turkey was becoming a real player in the international scene. A bridge between east and West, Israel and the Arabs, Muslims and Christians.

Naturally the relationship with Israel suffered.

But now? Turkey is on better terms with Israel than with either Syria or Iran. And with over 15% of Turkey's citizens being Alevi, closely related to the Alawites of Syria, which include much of the regime, backing the opposition doesn't look too clever. Turkey has made a big mistake first in buying into the Sunni/Shia division of the Islamic world, and second in picking a side.

I used to think that anyone who bet against Israel was sure to lose. Now I think that anyone that bets against Hezbollah is certain to lose.

For Turkey it was a big mistake to pick a side in the Syrian conflict. To pick the wrong side would be unforgiveable.

For Turkey, allowing the AKP to take power was an important test of democracy passed. Now, after a decade in power, how the AKP is removed from power is the next test.