Tuesday 7 May 2013

Red Lines in international policy

Mr Obama, heavily encouraged by Mr Netanyahu and various lobbyists, has declared a 'red line'.

That is, he has said if the Syrian regime does this. He will do that.

This is a very silly policy. 'Red lines' demonstrate nothing but the weakness of a leadership that declare them.

Mr Obama has been forced to declare his red line because, as a liberal Democrat, he is sensitive to the allegation that his support for Israel is less than whole hearted. For that reason he has been pressured by lobbyists, by people within his own administration, by Mr Netanyahu to declare a Syrian 'red line'. Which if crossed would elicit a military response from the USA.

This gives the impression that policy is made not so much by Mr Obama, but whichever configuration of allies can exert enough pressure. It makes him look weak.

It is worse than that. Mr Obama has now delivered a hostage to fortune. The Syrian regime knows that it can get away with anything up to the 'red line'. And if the regime believes that US intervention is inevitable, they have a great deal of choice as to when it will come.

Once having uttered the ultimatum of red line diplomacy, decisions are out of Mr Obama's hands. Unless of course he lets Syrian cross the red line and do nothing. In which case he would look weak anyhow.

In the UK, rather than red lines, we used to talk about 'lines in the sand'. This take on the 'line drawing policy' has an implicit acknowledgement, that is whenever you draw a line in the sand across the beach, sooner or later the sea, something much bigger and stronger than the whole of humanity, will wipe that line out.

Perhaps it is in memory of the famous story about King Canute, who encouraged by his courtiers, was carried on to the beach and commanded the incoming tide to stop its advance. The sea, of course, ignored him and wet his feet.

Naturally the courtiers were punished, and flattery discredited, for a season.

Everyone telling Mr Obama and America to draw his 'red line' or line in the sand, are like Canute's idiot courtiers. It is not their credibility they are staking on this artificial line.

Mr Obama should have had the strength and good sense to ignore them. Now, after the line has been drawn, there are no good options left.

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