Monday 20 May 2013

Abenomics, and the end of Austerity

In the 80s it was fashionable to see Japan as futuristic. Rock bands went there to record their live albums. Britain had a pop group named Japan.

We all had to abandon out old fashioned work practices and become like the Japanese. I even remember being shown videos (yes, that old) in school of how wonderful the Japanese and their society were.

We would all lose our jobs to the Japanese if we didn't reform and become like them.

When I look back on that, I marvel at how much has changed on the surface, but how little in practice. Nowadays Japan is ridiculed as a basket case. It is old fashioned and static. Incapable of reform and bereft of ideas.

Funny thing is, Japan has scarcely changed, and neither has the world. We are still being told that the new 'economic powerhouses' of India, Brazil, China threaten our way of life. therefore we need lower pay and less privileges to counter the threat. There is always some foreigner threatening our way of life. And some other foreigner to ridicule.

An alternative view is that Japan is not from some parallel reality, either better or worse, that Japan is on the same curve as us, just a little ahead. So the Japan of the 80s presaged the Western prosperity of the 90s. That the 'lost decade' of the 90s, Asian financial crisis, 'zombie banks', falling population and all is where we are now.

Ad it will continue, at least until someone over here implements something akin to Abenomics.

To be sure, the success of Abenomics is not proven. That does not dilute the point I am making.

Abenomics, whether success or failure, has changed the trajectory. Limping along like it has for the past 20 years is not where Japan is headed now. It goes either to recovery or sovereign default.

I would argue, it is a better policy option that continuing to try and muddle through.

Unlike endless austerity, there is at least some chance of recovery. And if not, the boil is lanced.

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