Ukraine, war or appeasement?

The Western world looks at Ukraine like a slow motion train crash.

Here is a country in Europe on the borders of the EU being slowly dismembered.

We do nothing.

Problem is, what can we do? The options are pretty simple.

We do nothing, and hope that Putin's Russia will then be, in the words of Bismarck, a 'satiated power'.

We tool up for war, knowing this will be a confrontation between Russia and the West.

We keep on talking, indulging in a game of bluff. Pretending that we will actually do something.

All of the above include the ever present, nearly always ineffectual, economic sanctions.

Almost everyone thinks that nothing is unacceptable. And I can understand why. Appeasement does not have a good track record anywhere, let alone central Europe. But is the 'do nothing' option really appeasement? I'm not so sure. Appeasement generally involves a lot of talking. Plenty of diplomacy, and the crafting of an agreement which reflects whatever facts on the ground an aggressor has created.

It is really the third option that is appeasement.

In the final analysis there is only one question. Are we prepared to send our sons and daughters to die in the name of Ukrainian freedom? It is a stark question because we face a stark choice: the alternative to doing nothing is to fight.

For me the answer is no. I am not prepared to die for Ukrainian freedom. Nor to send my children to.

It appears that Russian is prepared to sacrifice her children in this fight. There is no amount of diplomacy, sanctions, negotiations, agreements which can bridge this gap.

We can acquiesce with words of condemnation. It may seem weak, but it is at least honest. Endless rounds of talks to legitimise a limited annexation of Crimea, Donbas, Mariupol etc. that is what appeasement looks like. That is what Chamberlain did in Munich.

All the talk of agreements and ceasefires in Minsk. All our threats of arming Ukraine, committing ourselves to Ukrainian freedom, unless we are prepared to sacrifice our children, it is nothing but a game of bluff.

Sometime great poker players can win a game of bluff. Perhaps Merkel or Obama fit that mould. But no one, however great a player, can truly win a game of bluff when the other side is for real.

I really don't think Mr Putin is bluffing. Everything he has done so far is a bit more extreme than we Westerners expected. He really does mean to recapture a slice of his near abroad.

We may not be prepared to intervene to stop him, but neither should we legitimise that with an agreement in exchange for a commitment to stop at some new, arbitrary border.