Monday 23 September 2013

Merkel in Germany

Angela Merkel and her Christian Democrats have had a good election. 42% of the vote.

Some right wing Eurosceptics got close to representation with over 4% (In Germany, you need a minimum of 5% to get ant representatives into parliament).

But her coalition partners (the Free Democrats) slipped below 5%.

So, Merkel has no one on the right to form a coalition with.

Other people in parliament include the SPD (socialist/social democratic) Green and Lefists.

Between them they have 43% plus.

This is a great result for Merkel, but I do not believe it is quite the kind of result the British media says it is.

Firstly, the leftists and the rightists are pretty much neck and neck. The SPD has not done well, neither have the greens, that makes the German electorate look pretty much left wing, all other things considered.

Secondly, Merkel's victory is more a conquest of the German right than it is of the German electorate. 42% is a great result for the CDU/CSU alliance. But that is the sum of all the parliamentary parties of the right. This is a personal victory for Merkel, not a victory for the right.

Thirdly the British see this election result as a shift to Euro-scepticism, a rejection of the elitist euro agenda. But the Eurosceptic right wingers (AfD) scored as poorly as the Free Democrats.

You could more easily style this result as a rejection of free market neo liberalism as a rejection of Europe. After all, it is a victory for Ms Merkel, who has committee to saving the Euro.

The left is split, with many voters going to the left of the centrist SPD. The greens ran on higher taxes. The SPD leadership was lacklustre. Almost no one goes to the right of Merkel.

Someone from the German left will need to work with the CDU.

If the German left can find itself a leader, it is well positioned for the next election.

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