Tuesday 2 July 2013

Pity Egypt. For after the revolution comes the terror.

It is something akin to a universal truth that after the revolution comes the terror.

Revolutions whenever or wherever they are seem to follow a similar path.

Oppression from an incumbent elite becomes sufficiently extreme to deprive civil society of fundamental rights. It is a necessary but insufficient condition that thinking people scarcely dare speak their mind.

Once this situation takes hold it must be combined with economic hardship for the masses, such that feeding and clothing the children is a struggle. The tinder is ready. All that is needed is the spark.

That can be the self immolation of a street vendor, as in Tunisia, or revolution in a neighbour as in Egypt's case.

Once the ball is rolling, the path is clear. Downhill. Revolutions are begun by brave, honourable people willing to die for high ideals like freedom of expression and association. These are the thinking people that scarcely dared to speak their mind.

A revolution is made successful if joined by the ordinary people scarcely able to feed their children.

After a certain amount of struggle, the old regime is toppled, a new regime installed. This requires compromise between those that sought freedom for their minds and those that sought food for their children. That compromise is difficult. People from both groups have given their lives for the revolution, these groups both think that 'their' people are now in power. The new incumbents promise the earth to their own constituencies, they can never deliver. Inevitably, those that fought bravely feel betrayed by the new regime.

For one thing, people taking up the reins of office believe they will have far more power than they do. The old incumbent dictator will have fostered a myth of omnipotent invincibility. It is a myth the people to a certain extent bought in to. Even in a democracy we believe the sate has far more power than it really does.

For another, revolutions are begun by idealists. they put people into power who are not best suited to the grubby deal making, realpolitik and expedience of governance.

Often called a provisional government, the first government after a revolution falls. The coalition of free thinkers and child feeders fractures.

After a further struggle new, narrower group takes power. This group will be highly ideological, though not what most thinking people call idealists. They are prepared to sacrifice basic humanity for the power of their own group. They will tolerate no opposition. Free though will be a thing of the corrupt past.

This group may be less human, but it is more competent in the wielding of power.

It will realise that the free thinkers need the child feeders for a revolution, so it will appease the child feeders as it oppresses the free thinkers. This oppression is much more severe than anything the old regime ever thought of.

Racial and religious minorities are caught up in it. With much law from the previous regime swept away, the petty prejudices of any small time policeman promoted to sergeant are the difference between life and death. He has enormous power over anyone and everyone he comes into contact with.

Another revolution will, eventually result. Only when a country becomes so unstable that those taking power after a revolution are already fearful for the consequences of he next (in particular the consequences for themselves and their families) will democracy have a chance.

For power corrupts. Our leaders are never restricted by their respect for us. Only ever their fear. Fear of the people, fear of the law, fear of the next regime. Fear of losing power. That is all that limits the excesses of our leaders.

Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood took power thinking it was their inalienable right, and have behaved accordingly. Another revolution must come, if not now the certainly before true democracy can take hold.

After the revolution comes the terror. Pity Egypt's liberals. Pray for Egypt's Copts. There may be few of either left before Egypt tastes democracy.

No comments:

Post a Comment