The end of Mrs Thatcher

Much has been said after the death of Margaret Thatcher.

And there has been some dancing in the streets.

I would like to qualify whatever I have to say about Mrs Thatcher by noting that this is really a human story. An elderly woman has died, I bear her family and friends no malice and woud wish they come to terms with their grief in privacy and in their own way.

There are many perspectives on the political career of Mrs Thatcher, but almost all boil down to one of two groups. Love and Hate.

Those that love her say two things, that the demise of those that suffered under her leadership was not of her making, but they were the victims of inexorable historical forces. It was inevitable. And that her policies changed the nation. I see a contradiction here. Were the changes a result of Mrs Thatcher's policies or of unstoppable historical forces?

Whatever you believe, managing the changes with sensitivity and tact was not a strength of Mrs Thatcher.

Her supports also claim she made Britain 'Great' again.

Those that hate her say she destroyed vast swathes of British industry and divided the nation. One might also conclude that instead of managing the decline of British power in the world, Mrs Thatcher actively encouraged the fantasy of continuing British power and influence.

Just considering the reaction to her death, we must accept that Mrs Thatcher was a divisive figure.

And this would be my first point. Truly great leaders unite their people behind them. Mrs Thatcher divided. She divided her party, her country and at times the continent of Europe. She was a charismatic leader with tremendous political achievments, I would not describe her as a great leader.

My second important point would be that Mrs Thatcher was leader of the Conservative party, but was not a conservative. Any political opinion can be described as either radical or conservative. Mrs Thatcher was gernerally radical. She was very rarely conservative.

In order to assess her career we have to agree on what her achievments were. I would summarise her career as prime minister thus:- Mrs Thatcher won a closely fought election in 1979 and unusually became a more radical prime minister than leader of the opposition. Her economic policy did not show early signs of success, within two years of taking office many British city centres were torn apart by rioting, but she was able to achieve a second election victory in 1983. This was largely due to the effect of the Falklands war and also aided by division amongst her political opponents. At the time some thought the Archbishop of Canterbury provided more coherent opposition than any political figure. Mrs Thatcher was also aided by close support of the Murdoch press.

The scale of this victory was what allowed Mrs Thatcher to reshape the political environment. Within her own party those who did not accept her world view were labelled 'wet'. In the rest of the country they were 'the enemy within'. Much of the economy which was state owned ot privatised. Many laws to restrict union activity were passed. Council tennants were permitted to buy their residences and reduced prices. Many individuals benefitted, but the collective capital of society, that which we held in common, was much reduced. One paraphrase of Mrs Thatchers own words (often offered as a quote) is 'there is no such thing as society'. While not an accurate quote this line does reveal something of her philosophical stance.

It was in the second term that Mrs Thatcher's power was at its zenith. Economic conditions were improving for a large proportion of the population. The one off bounty of privatisation of state industries coupled with the sale council houses (social housing built and owned by local government - 'councils') boosted the incomes of those with a little to spare. However privatisation coupled with restrictions on labour unions also reduced the bargaining power of workers, and allowed unemployment to rise. It was an ideological choice to target inflation rather than unemployment as the great macroeconomic problem. With North Sea oil revenue buoyant, the Thatcher government was able to preside over decline in traditional industries without problems in balance of payments or economic growth. Some would argue oil revenue masked wider economic failure. Others that it paid for the policy of unemployment. What is beyond doubt is it facilitated what the government expected to be an economic transition to a more market based economy. The government took on the labour unions, in particular a bitter one year strike by coal miners. While the leadsership on the NUM (National Union of Mineworkers) can be easily criticised, and because of the way the strike was called (miners being balloted pit by pit as opposed to nationally) many pits, particularly in Nottinghamshire, stayed open, the defeat of the miners really was the defeat of the union movement. The union movement was the bedrock of the labour movement and the labour party.

There was extensive liberalisation of financial services, which were to replace the old manufacturing industries, this culminsated in the 'big bang' in the city which allowed electronic trading of financial products.

Mrs Thatcher also signed the single European act, creating the single market (an ideological committment), but also making British law subservient to European law for the first time.

A close relationship with President Reagan (who she had first met in 1975) enhanced British influence. And also created the perception of a choice, between Atlanticist and European futures for the nation. This is an issue which is not yet resolved.

The landslide of 1983 made the election of 1987 very difficult for Labour to win. The labour party also had to cope with the erosion of its political base in the wider labour movement which impacted funding. The Conservative party had far more money to spend. Labour reduced the Conservative majority but failed to win. As her time in office wore on Mrs Thatcher seemed to become somewhat detached from reality. Her championing of the poll tax was political suicide. Log and slow, but still suicide. When announcing the birth of her grandchild she said 'We are a grandmother'. Likening herself to royalty. Her government became involved in ever more fractious disputes over Europe, her leadership was challenged, and failing to secure wholehearted support of cabinet colleagues was forced to resign.

Another mark of a truly great leader is knowing when to quit. Here too Mrs Thatcher falls a long way short.

While a political collossus who genuinely managed to shift the centre ground of British politics rightwards, I am unsure there is much positive legacy from Mrs Thatcher as a national leader.

Her achievment in becoming a female MP, party leader and Prime Minister is significant.

Her reshaping of the debate on economic and social policy also.

But as for lasting legacy in the nation, the liberalisation of financial services has already ended in tears.

The initial boon of privatisation has passed, a majority of the public would now prefer the utilities back in public hands.

The union movement still stands shattered.

Local government was emasculated, for all her hatred of the state, Mrs Thatcher was a great centraliser of power.

The notion of a 'special relationship' between the US and UK lives on in the imagination of many British, but was never so important to the US. Obama's piot to Asia amply demonstrates the limited relevance of Europe, never mind the UK. The question of Britain's relationship with Europe remains a poisonous one for politicians of all hues.

Argentina is again becoming restive over the Falklands. The transition from Empire to middle ranking European power has been hindered rather than helped by the impact of Mrs Thatcher's term in office.

Many individuals are living in privately owned ex council properties, but there is a housing crisis in Britain, with woefully inadequate provision of low cost housing.

Not even the question of the UK nuclear deterrent is truly settled.

So far as positive legacy, little is left, if anything at all. Even Mrs Thatcher's reputation as a tax cutter fails to withstand scrutiny. The proportion of GDP taken in tax being higher at the end of her timein office than at the beginning. With North Seal oil in decline, public finances were not on any sort of long term sound footing.

It seems to me that Mrs Thatcher, rather than facing up to the truly hard decisions involving British decline on the world stage, actually ducked them. A divisive figure at home, she used whatever leeway she had to neutralise political enemies both inside and outside her party. Her economic policy stands discredited. Growth was higher in the three decated leading to 1979 than in the subsequent years. Her social polices were disastrous. Her efforts at foreign policy bequeath a legacy of problems which  cannot be addressed until Britain decisively opts for in or out of Europe, another question which her government sidestepped.

Mrs Thatcher has a singular achievment in becoming Britain's first woman Prime Minister. There is little else positive to remember her for.