Turley reaps the whirlwind

Turkey has always been a country that forms a bridge. Between continents, religions, regions, cultures.

For Turkey, it is somehow necessary to hold contradicting positions at the same time. Turkey shows different faces to the different parts of the world it borders as a matter of course.

But somehow, Turkey is in trouble.

President Erdogan is nominally an Islamist. In many ways, political Islam's greatest success.

For this reason he supported the rebellion in Syria. This was in contradiction with a previous statement on foreign policy. 'Zero problems with neighbours'.

The Syria policy may have been designed to remake Turkey as the leader of the Sunni Muslim world. But it created problems not only with Syria, but also with Russia, Iran, Iraq and Lebanon.

Quite a few more problems than zero.

Worse than that, Turkey has a weakspot. In the South East a restive Kurdish population. The alliance backing Syria's president Assad becamse quite friendly with Kurds fighting against IS. These Kurds were closely linked to Turkish Kurds firghting the Turkish state.

Then came the kicker. a pretty serious attempt at a military coup. This coup attempt originated in the Gulenist movement. Gulen is in the USA, and the USA refuses to extradite him.

Turkish conspiracy theorists believe the Gulenist movement was founded by the CIA. Gulen himself may have had some links with US intelligence at some point in his life, but I do not believe this was an attempt by the US to overthrow the Turkish government.

Nevertheless, the words of support for the elected Turkish government from the West did seem rather lukewarm. Their condemnation of the coup somewhat equivocal.

The rumour is, Erdogan was given a warning of what was coming. That warning came not from the West, but from Russia.

So now Turkey realigns, not with NATO and the gulf monarchies, but with Russia and Iran.

A Russo-Turkish alliance looks to have great potential. And Turkey, being a member of NATO, and of huge strategic importance really is a prize.

But Turkey has stoked the flames of Islamism in Syria for too long. Now that Turkey switches sides, there will be blowback. There will be a price to pay. Erdogan has sown the wind. Erdogan's Turkey will reap the whirlwind.

Doubtless Mr Putin will be keen to explain, there is nothing so useful as a common enemy for uniting the people behind a leader.

Putin has all but pulled Turkey into his gang. Which way Trump?